WP8

NeTTUN WP8 Progress                                                               WP8  Companys

Modelling of global project risks

Period September 2012 – February 2014

WP8 goals

On the basis of a concept initiated by Professor Einstein at the MIT, the Laboratory of Rock Mechanics (LMR) of the EPFL has co-developed a software package called “Decision Aids for Tunnelling (DAT)”, which allows the risk associated with the geology and the construction method to be quantified and the construction time and costs uncertainties induced. The objectives of the NeTTUN WP8 project are to implement improvements in the use of DAT; one particular goal is to increase the output reliability by basing the input on tunnelling experience, with the addition of two Databases (TBM performances and risk factors) and an Expert System.

Knipsel

Database of TBM performances

After having specified, on the basis of a bibliographical research, the structure of a database of TBM performances, the filling of the database with data of projects in rocks, obtained through questionnaires and company data has been started. This database refers to the so-called “ordinary conditions”, i.e., outside geological accidents such as fault zones, fractured rocks or squeezing behaviour.

Database of risk factorsKnipsel 2

As for TBM performances, after a bibliographical research, the filling of a database of risk factors linked to TBM tunnelling with data of projects, obtained through questionnaires and company data has been started. This database provides information of the effects that adverse geological conditions may have on normal TBM operations.

Expert system

Connected to these two databases, an Expert System has been developed to assist the DAT user to create more reliable and realistic input files, by checking and/or suggesting data, by calculating TBM performances based on rock parameters, or by applying expert rules.

Decision support tool

The improvement of the DAT consisted also in extending the nature of the end users or the phase of the project to be simulated (new so-called “user stories”). This resulted in a new user interface and in new functionalities, and made the DAT more user-friendly with respect to the previous versions. A new tutorial and the actualization of the user manual, based on these improvements, have been produced.

Future developments and steps

During this period, specifications have been defined and databases and expert systems have started to be implemented in the software (first software version). The next steps will consist on the completion of the software version and in its testing.

WP8 team

Laurent Chantron (BG), Jean-Paul Dudt (EPFL), Daniel Collomb (BG), Andrea Delisio (EPFL), Michel-Jan Van Mark (BG), Michele Janutolo (BG), Raphael Coquoz (EPFL), Fabiana Henke (BG).